RMI expects battery costs to halve this decade, from $151 per kilowatt hour (kWh) to between $60 and 90 per kWh. The analysis reveals economics is now overtaking policy incentives as the core accelerant of EV sales, with falling battery costs leading the shift. Oil demand for cars peaked in 2019 and will be falling by at least 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) every year after 2030, eliminating expected growth in oil demand for cars, according to the RMI forecasts. By contrast, current established projections see EVs reaching only around 40% market share by 2030, despite having been consistently revised higher to try and keep up with the exponential growth already underway.Īs internal combustion cars account for around a quarter of global oil demand and broader road transport accounts for nearly half, the exponential growth of EVs puts all of that oil demand at risk. ![]() ![]() Global EV sales are on track to meet or outpace even the most ambitious net-zero timelines and could account for more than two-thirds of market share by 2030, following exponential growth trends, according to new analysis by RMI in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund.Ĭombustion car sales peaked in 2017, and by the middle of the decade more will be scrapped than sold, meaning the overall fleet of combustion cars is about to peak and will be in freefall by 2030, the RMI research shows.įollowing an ‘S-curve’* trajectory, already established by leading EV markets in Northern Europe and China, implies that global EV sales will increase at least sixfold by 2030, to enjoy a market share of 62% to 86% of new vehicle sales, the analysis shows. Battery electric vehicles are likely to cross a second tipping point, where their purchase price falls below that of an equivalent petrol or diesel car, as early as 2024 in Europe, 2025 in China, 2026 in the US, and 2027 in India, the EEIST analysis shows.Īhead of Climate Week NYC, three separate pieces of research from RMI, Systems Change Lab, and the EEIST project highlight the speed and scale of the accelerating transition to EVs.Leading markets have already crossed a tipping point, with the EU and China seeing battery electric vehicles cheaper to own than petrol and diesel cars in the small and medium-sized car segments, according to new research from the EEIST project.Later-adopting countries, such as India and Israel, are now accelerating EV deployment at faster rates than the global average, meaning they have a chance to catch up with the front-runners, such as China, according to a separate analysis by Systems Change Lab.Exponential growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales is transforming the auto sector faster than currently predicted, with EVs set to dominate global car sales by the end of the decade, putting at risk nearly half of worldwide oil demand, according to new analysis by RMI.EVs to surpass two-thirds of global car sales by 2030, putting at risk nearly half of oil demand, new research finds
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